It’s hard to imagine a better opportunity to oust an incumbent than the one currently before the Democratic primary candidates challenging New York City Mayor Eric Adams. In the last few weeks, Adams has been engulfed in a growing scandal surrounding the Trump Justice Department’s decision to dismiss his federal corruption charges and the mayor’s corresponding willingness to cooperate with the administration’s mass deportation agenda. Though Adams has denied any quid pro quo, the administration’s border czar Tom Homan did threaten—on national television—to be “up [Adams’] butt” if the mayor doesn’t allow immigration enforcement officers on Rikers Island.
Adams—who is battling a crowded field of challengers in June’s mayoral primary—now faces escalating calls to resign or be removed from office. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has decided against removing the mayor for now, but he could also be ousted by an “inability committee” made up of top city officials. Comptroller Brad Lander, who is running for mayor, has floated convening it. Adams, meanwhile, shows no sign of retreat, writing on X over the weekend, “I’m not stepping down, I’m stepping UP.”
If Adams does leave office before his term is up—voluntarily or not—he’d be replaced by New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. According to the city charter, if that happens before March 27 (90 days before the primary), the city would hold a nonpartisan special election to replace Adams. If it happens afterward, Williams would remain acting mayor until the general election in November. Either way, both the primary and general election would proceed as normal. But the process is untested, and it’s not clear if Adams could run again if removed.
So where does that leave New York City’s sizeable but scattered progressive wing? They’re hoping to capitalize on Adams’ increasing vulnerability and what they see as a resurgence in anti-Trump momentum to elect one of several left-leaning candidates for mayor. But no definite frontrunner has appeared in the pack of progressive challengers. Instead, New Yorkers could see a familiar name atop the ballot in November: Andrew Cuomo.
George Albro, co-chair of the New York Progressive Action Network, described the former governor as the “500 pound gorilla about to enter the room.”
The former New York governor has yet to formally jump into the race, but it has been widely reported that he is meeting with donors and key constituent groups in preparation. Cuomo has dominated early polls despite resigning in 2021 under a cloud of sexual harassment allegations (which he denied) and facing heavy criticism for how his administration handled nursing home deaths during the pandemic. But many voters remember him fondly. On Valentine’s Day, Cuomo posted a video of his visit to an East Harlem community center, where his popularity among the city’s older women was on full display. He handed out roses, embraced supporters, and, in what was essentially a campaign speech, promised to “make this state safe for everyone.” A moderate like Adams, Cuomo stands to benefit the most from the mayor’s dwindling re-election odds. There is still time for a singularly compelling progressive candidate to rise to the occasion, but it’s starting to look like Cuomo’s race to lose. George Albro, co-chair of the New York Progressive Action Network, described the former governor as the “500 pound gorilla about to enter the room.”
There is no coherent center of power in New York City’s political left. The city’s progressive groups are diverse and have sometimes dissonant policy priorities—making it unlikely that they will vote as a bloc. Ana María Archila, co-chair of the state’s Working Families Party, is hoping to prevent the “fragmentation and division” that plagued the left during the 2021 mayoral election, when a leading contender didn’t emerge until the last minute. The party is among the most influential progressive groups and is using its endorsement process to encourage candidates to work more collaboratively under ranked-choice voting. But Archila acknowledged that progressives will have to eventually coalesce around a single candidate.
Progressive challengers have been clustered near the bottom of recent public polls, though many Democrats see Lander as the tentative frontrunner. The comptroller, who previously represented the Park Slope area in the city council, has been trying to court more moderate voters while campaigning on his experience managing the city’s finances. He will have to compete for the brownstone liberal vote with former comptroller Scott Stringer, whose 2021 mayoral campaign was derailed by a decades-old sexual assault allegation (which he has denied). A strong early contender was state Sen. Jessica Ramos, a former labor organizer representing Queens, though she is now trailing in fundraising.
State Sen. Zellnor Myrie is gaining popularity and earned a coveted endorsement from US Rep. Dan Goldman, who prosecuted Trump’s first impeachment case. Myrie, who represents Adams’ old district in central Brooklyn, is well-positioned to win over Black voters who may be disillusioned with the mayor and might otherwise support Cuomo. The breakout star, though, has been state Rep. Zohran Mamdani, a social media-savvy socialist representing Astoria, Queens. Riding a wave of viral videos about his proposals for city-owned grocery stores and a rent freeze for rent-stablized tenants, Mamdani raked in $640,000 over the last three-month fundraising period—more than any other candidate.
But candidates like Mamdami may struggle to gain widespread support among Democratic primary voters, who tend to be older, wealthier, and more highly educated. After a spate of high-profile violent incidents on the subways, these voters may be looking for a law and order candidate—like Cuomo, who has long framed himself as a protector. At the same time, rising rents remain an issue in a city experiencing a perennial housing crisis. Progressive candidates have rolled out plans to dramatically increase housing supply, bolster public safety, and make childcare more affordable. “Often the issue on voters’ minds picks the winning candidate rather than candidates picking the most compelling issue to champion,” Laura Tamman, a political science professor at Pace University, said.
Some see Trump himself becoming a central issue in the mayoral primary, as outrage grows around Adams’ cooperation with the administration. “People have found it really unacceptable that Eric Adams is bending the knee,” Archila, the Working Families Party co-chair, said. “In the last few weeks, it has become more visible that people in New York City actually want a mayor who will fight back against Trump.”
Though the resistance is certainly not at 2016 levels—and Trump gained significant support in parts of New York City—large protests in the city have opposed the administration’s sweeping federal cuts, targeting of transgender youth, and immigration crackdowns. Some on the left hope that the momentum will help a progressive mayoral candidate rise to the top. Albro, co-chair of the New York Progressive Action Network, said that the Mamdani and Lander campaigns have started winning over younger progressives, who tend to be skeptical of electoral politics. “Part of it is the Trump effect,” Albro said, “and part of it is they have begun to realize that the electoral process is a major way you can make change.”
But if voters are looking for a mayor willing and able to brawl with Trump, they very well might turn to Cuomo. As governor, he developed a reputation as a “tough guy” with a “muscular” approach to politics, said Eric Lane, a law professor at Hofstra University. If Cuomo does run, he would be the only candidate truly familiar with the national stage. Cuomo’s daily Covid-19 briefings in the early days of the pandemic helped the governor cast himself as even-keeled and trustworthy—particularly in contrast to Trump’s chaotic pandemic response.
Still, John Mollenkopf, a political science professor at the City University of New York, warned against reading too much into Cuomo’s two-digit leads in early polls, which reflect a “high point for his standing, not necessarily a base from which he can rise.” Both opponents and progressive groups will do their best to remind primary voters of every ghost in Cuomo’s past. But political attention spans are short, and many of the men whose careers were derailed during the #MeToo movement are returning to public life. It’s unlikely that the former governor’s checkered history alone will dissuade supporters.
The possibility of Mayor Cuomo has sent some political players hunting for a Hail Mary candidate. This week, Politico reported a last-minute effort to recruit City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, a moderate Democrat with no relation to the mayor.
The race will come into sharper focus in the next month, after the petitioning process begins on Monday. In order to appear on the ballot, candidates must collect several thousand signatures from registered Democratic voters by early April—the first real test of each campaign’s fundraising and organizing power.
Top image credits, from left: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP; Debra L. Rothenberg/Zuma; Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/AP (2); NDZ/STAR MAX/IPx/AP; Steve Sanchez/Pacific Press/Zuma