WASHINGTON — Recent polls and other indicators are prompting rising speculation that President Joe Biden may not win Minnesota a second time and the state will become a battleground as the race for the White House heats up this summer.

But is Minnesota, with its history of voting for Democratic presidential candidates, really up for grabs?

To many political observers, Minnesota has become a “second tier” battleground state, not as competitive as the seven states that will most likely determine the outcome of the presidential election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — but still somewhat in play.  

And, depending on how the election plays out in the swing states, Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes could decide whether it is Biden or former President Donald Trump who reclaims the White House.

However, history and other indicators, including the campaign money the president has raised in the state, may indicate Minnesota will continue to support Biden in November.

Minnesota has not voted for a Republican for president since 1972, when it backed Richard Nixon.

Yet there are state-wide polls, like a recent one conducted by KSTP and another by MinnPost last fall, that show Biden and Trump to be virtually tied in Minnesota.

The KTSP poll, conducted earlier this month, showed that Biden leads Trump 44% to 42% in the state with 11% saying they’ll vote for another candidate and 4% undecided.

Steven Schier, an emeritus professor of political science at Carleton College, said Minnesota has looked ripe for the picking for the GOP before.

For instance, in 2000 former Democratic Vice President Al Gore confounded pollsters who predicted a GOP win by defeating former President George Bush by nearly 3 percentage points — even with Green Party candidate Ralph Nader syphoning off more than 5% of the vote.

“Traditionally, Minnesota may look competitive, but on Election Day it is not,” Schier said.

He said the Democratic advantages in Minnesota include a larger war chest and a more organized and established ground game — which includes better get-out-the-vote efforts.

Schier also said that Biden and surrogates like Vice President Kamala Harris and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack have already made stops in Minnesota, while Trump has yet to set foot in the state  in this campaign cycle.

“(Dems) want to widen their majority now so they can put Minnesota away and they don’t have to worry about it later,” Schier said.

Warning signs for both candidates

Still, political analysts see flashing red lights for the Biden campaign.

In last month’s Super Tuesday primary election, the president won 70% of the vote in the state, which is low for an incumbent with little opposition. About one in five Minnesota Democrats picked the ballot’s uncommitted option, a protest vote over Biden’s response to the Israel-Hamas war.

There are also warning signs for the Trump campaign in Minnesota.

Trump lost decisively to Biden in Minnesota in 2020, by a little more than 7 percentage points, and he’s had trouble in the state before.

In 2016, when a caucus awarded its delegates, Trump came in third behind Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, winning barely a fifth of GOP caucus-goers.

Trump did come within 1.5 percentage points of Hillary Clinton in the general election in Minnesota that year, and that result was shockingly close for some because polls did not indicate it would be that tight of a race.

“I have thought at times that Minnesota was more competitive than the national media thought,” said Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

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Trump visited the Twin Cities shortly before Election Day in 2016, which may have given the Republican a boost.

“He seemed to think Minnesota was up for grabs,” Burden said. “This year we don’t know.”

There are indications that Minnesota Republicans may be lukewarm to Trump and that some may even be anti-Trumpers.

For instance, Haley raised nearly as much money than Trump in the state before she dropped out of the race last month. She received nearly $850,000 from hundreds of mostly small donors in Minnesota.

As of the end of last month, however, it was Biden who had raised the most campaign cash in the state, about $1.8 million, while Trump had raised only about $1.1 million.

Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6^th District, who is the state Trump campaign chairman, once told the former president he could win Minnesota.

But Schier said he doesn’t think Trump or his campaign will spend much money or other resources in Minnesota, preferring to concentrate on the top-tier swing states.

“Republicans see other routes to winning,” he said.

Burden, however, said Minnesota may prove to be a tempting target for the GOP.   

Gaza, inflation and a lack of affordable housing could turn some young people away from Biden when the president urgently needs to keep his coalition intact. That, and other things, “would suggest that Minnesota is not off the bubble,” Burden said.

Even if Biden and Trump don’t spend much money or time in the state, some Minnesotans will be subjected to both Trump and Biden campaign ads that are run in media markets in western Wisconsin and “leak into Minnesota.”

“That will give them both the advantage of campaigning in the state,” he said.

Dissatisfaction with Biden-Trump matchup

Another factor to weigh as the race for the White House plays out in Minnesota are national political trends and sentiments that could resonate with Minnesota voters.

A Pew Research Center national survey released Tuesday found that, nationally, the presidential race is virtually tied; 49% of registered voters favored Trump or leaned toward voting for him while 48% supported or leaned toward Biden.

The survey also uncovered a considered amount of  discontent, apathy and resignation among voters that could depress turnout for both candidates.

The Pew Research survey showed that about two-thirds of voters have little or no confidence that Biden is physically fit to be president and nearly as many lack confidence in Trump to act ethically.

The survey also measured a great deal of dissatisfaction with the Biden-Trump matchup.“Nearly half of registered voters (49%) say that, if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot,” Pew Research said.

Ana Radelat

Ana Radelat is MinnPost’s Washington, D.C. correspondent. You can reach her at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter at @radelat.

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