WASHINGTON – As analysts pore over the results of the midterm election, one thing that has become apparent is that increased enthusiasm of the voters propelled the Democratic wave that swept the country. 

There is also evidence of a dampening of Republican enthusiasm for GOP candidates this year.

That can be most clearly seen in the 1^st Congressional District race, where Rep. Brad Finstad is trailing Democratic challenger Jake Johnson by 323 votes with the results likely headed for a recount.

In unofficial results, Finstad received 162,733 votes while Johnson received 163,056.

In 2024, when President Donald Trump was at the top of the GOP ticket, Finstad won 220,929 votes while his Republican challenger, Rachel Bohman, won 156,375. Finstad even outperformed Trump in the 1st District in that election. 

So, there was an increase of votes for a Democrat in this midterm and a huge drop in the votes for Finstad from two years ago.

Trump urged voters to cast their ballots in the midterm as if he was on the ballot. 

And in a way, he was. But not in a good way for the GOP as the giant blue wave that washed over the nation Tuesday was considered a referendum on Trump’s presidency and a reason GOP voters were not enthusiastic to show up at the polls. It also served to turn out Democrats and independents who voted for Democrats.  

“Trump has delivered a steady diet of disruption in his second term,” said Carleton College political science professor emeritus Steven Schier. “ICE controversies, high gas prices, a war without an apparent end in sight, tariffs that roil rural producers. He made the election about himself and, with the diet he has provided, received repudiation nationally and in Minnesota.”

Schier said that in Minnesota, the election centered on Trump, not fraud, even as Republican candidates fervently and continuously attacked Democrats on the issues.

There were decisive victories of Democrats in all statewide offices.

“It’s far from clear that the GOP will ever be competitive in statewide elections again,” Schier said. “Minnesota seems to be going the way of Oregon and Washington. All are states with large populations of highly educated white voters who have turned away from Trump this year.”

Outperforming Harris in Greater Minnesota

Greater enthusiasm for a Democratic candidate can also be determined from Tuesday’s results in the 2^nd Congressional District.

Retiring Rep. Angie Craig, who represents the district now, won 165,183 votes in the last midterm, held in 2022. Craig’s Democratic rival, Joe Teirab, won 148, 576 votes.

In this midterm, 214,255 ballots were cast for Democratic Rep.-elect Matt Little and 160,636 were cast for his rival, state Sen. Eric Pratt.

So, more votes were cast in that district for its representative to Congress than were cast two years ago, with many more of those additional votes going to a Democrat.

In fact, Minnesota broke records for voter turnout in a midterm, with Minnesotans casting about 2.9 million votes. That’s about 11% more ballots than were cast in 2022.

Little said the reason for greater enthusiasm in the 2^nd District was the strength of his campaign. “I think our campaign was successful because I said what I believe and people appreciated that,” Little said.

But he also said his decisive victory – he won with 57.1% to 42.8% for Pratt – was also due to voter anger over President Donald Trump and his policies.

That anger drove voters to the Democratic Party across the nation in suburbs and exurbs, which make up much of the area of the 2^nd District.

Sen.-elect Peggy Flanagan and Gov.-elect Amy Klobuchar received fewer votes than the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz ticket did in 2024.

Flanagan received about 1.52 million votes and Klobuchar received about 1.57 million. Meanwhile, the Harris-Walz ticket won nearly 1.66 million  votes.

But an analysis by the Flanagan campaign says the Democrat outperformed that Harris-Walz ticket in some parts of the state.

According to that analysis, Flanagan’s biggest gains were in Greater Minnesota, regional centers and suburbs.

It showed an 11.5% shift toward Flanagan in Clay County, a 10.5% shift in Mower County, a 22% shift in St. Louis County and a 19% shift in Olmsted County. Flanagan’s campaign said she did better than Harris in other Greater Minnesota counties as well.

The analysis showed there was a flip from Trump to Flanagan in Winona, Anoka and Blue Earth counties.

Emmer faces another election

The dust has yet to clear from this week’s Republican massacre and the GOP is heading toward another election next week – and Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6^th District, who won his race for reelection, could lose this one.

On Tuesday, U.S. House Republicans will hold elections on who will lead them in the new Congress, where they will now be in the minority.

What will be the size of that minority? That’s not determined yet as races across the country are too close to call and some are heading to recounts, like the contest between Rep. Brad Finstad, R-1^st District, and Democrat Jake Johnson.

Currently, Democrats have an estimated 50-seat majority over Republicans in the House.

The heavy GOP losses forced House Speaker Mike Johnson to announce he would not seek another leadership position.

In the minority, House Republicans will have only four main leadership posts: minority leader, whip, conference chair and policy committee chair.

Emmer, who is now House majority whip, said he would like to continue to be GOP whip in the minority. But the size of the Republican defeat may have dimmed his chances.

And Texas Rep. August Pfluger is challenging Emmer for that job, which will be the No. 2 Republican leadership position in the next Congress.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, are the two announced candidates in the race.

Over in the U.S. Senate, current Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said he wants to become Senate Minority Leader but could be challenged for that position.

ICYMI (election edition):

▪️State Government reporter Matt Blake wrote that Minnesota will have another Democratic trifecta, but with Gov.-elect Amy Klobuchar at the helm it likely will be different from the one in 2023. (Read Matt’s story on Klobuchar’s victory here).

▪️Yes, Minnesota’s Democrats are now in the majority in Congress, but the state will lose a lot of clout as it sends two freshmen to the U.S. Senate, where seniority is the coin of the realm. (Read our story on Peggy Flanagan’s election to the Senate here).

▪️Brian Arola reported on the Jake Johnson campaign and how the Democrat was able to best incumbent Rep. Brad Finstad by fewer than 350 votes in the 1st District race, which is likely headed for a recount. (Here’s Brian’s election-night story).

▪️We also covered Democrat Matt Little’s win in the 1st Congressional District, where he beat state Rep. Eric Pratt. That seat opened up when Angie Craig decided to run for the U.S. Senate.

Please keep your comments, and any questions, coming. I’ll try my best to respond. I can be reached at [email protected].

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